Maybe the most important lesson we have learned from the 20th century is that, with the managerial possibilities offered by modern bureaucratic systems, someone with even the most bizzare political ideas can, if he gets to power (by whatever means), rule a country for quite some time. Modern bureaucracies are pretty powerful instruments of coercion. Within a few years, which is quite a short span of time in historical terms, they can set up a massive propaganda apparatus involving an adapted school curriculum, a secret police with its network of informers, and distribution of propaganda material through the media. Another important, and depressing lesson, is that most people will adapt to the new regime, however monstrous it may be.

It is also interesting to note that the ideological revolutions which appeared in the 20th century took everyone by surprise. Communism was born as a radical ideology in the 19th century and had to contend for a long time with the strong competition of Anarchism. But all of a sudden, after the First World War, Fascism appeared in Italy, and by 1932 it also held Germany under its sway. Communism, for its part, won its first victory in Russia – against the predictions of Marxist thinkers of the 19th century, who considered Russia a backward agricultural country unfit for a revolution of the proletariat. Anarchism died after a brave, but marginal fight during the Civil War in Spain.

The Islamic revolution in Iran in 1978 also took everyone pretty much by surprise. As did Al Qaeda. Sionism has also proved to be a surprising ideology. When it started in Central Europe in the 19th century, probably few people expected it to to be able to actually reclaim Palestine, and to evolve into a warlike movement backed by a modern, lethal army.

The pattern that comes out from the above is, that you can have ideological movements springing up and spreading pretty fast, and taking root in unexpected places ( Russia, the industrial backwater, supposedly unfit for communism. Iran, the rapidly modernising country, ruled by a staunchly pro-Western monarch). And if they take power, they can, given the power of modern bureaucracy, rapidly coerce the vast majority of the population into submission.

Nazi Germany was defeated by the economic might of the USA. Good did not win because it was Good, but because it happened to be bigger and stronger. The USA/USSR rivalry was a more complicated story, partly a war by proxy and partly an economic competition. Broadly, the USA won because its system ensured better productivity and innovation.

But what of the ideological revolutions of the future? What if they happen within the centre of world power itself? For eight years, the neo-conservatives have held power in Washington D.C., and they have done substantial damage to the USA and to the world – the war in Iraq, the world economy, neglect of environmental issues. Yet their damage, though great, has been limited. America’s powerful democratic political system is still in place and it will hopefully ensure a return to relative normalcy and common sense.

But what of the future ? What if a more powerful destructive ideology appears in the USA, for example an apocalyptic version of Christianity, which would preach war against Islam and the Communists in China?

Another possibility is that a new form of belief appears. The industrial revolution has done lasting damage to the human soul, by throwing him into senseless patterns of consumption, and a generally materialistic outlook on life. In the past thirty years, we have seen a mish-mash of New Age and ecological groups appear as a reaction to this. Maybe one fringe movement will evolve into something sinister, for example a fusion of shamanism/esoterism, ecology and terrorism. We could imagine a group called the Earth Mother, with a mission to “heal the Earth”, and organised into a hierarchy of shamans ( connected to the Earth Mother by some secret rites) and common soldiers.

Technological revolutions could also bring about the arrival of a race of genetically-modified supersoldiers. These would be a breed of stronger , more intelligent warriors who would quickly grow impatient about taking orders from lesser human beings like us, and they would take over power. We could see the rise of a “genocracy” of improved humans, and the return of slavery.